Run your numbers算你的钱

Two questions, one set of assumptions: what this house returns if you hold it as an investment, and how that compares with not buying at all. 一组假设回答两个问题：把这套房当投资持有能拿到什么，以及和干脆不买相比差多少。

City城市

Property type房型

Purchase price $买入价 $

Down payment %首付 %

Mortgage rate %利率 %

Monthly rent $月租金 $

Home-price growth %/yr房价年涨幅 %

The rest of the assumptions — all adjustable其余假设 —— 都可以改

Loan term (yrs)贷款年限

Rent growth %/yr租金年涨幅 %

Vacancy %空置率 %

Management %管理费率 %

Property tax %房产税率 %

Insurance %/yr保险 %/年

Maintenance %/yr维修 %/年

HOA $/moHOA $/月

Cost growth %/yr成本年涨幅 %

Closing costs %过户费 %

Selling costs %卖出成本 %

Alt. investment return %/yr替代投资年收益率 %

Held as an investment当投资持有

Annualised return on the cash you put in. The smaller figure is the dollar total. 你投进去的那笔钱的年化回报。小字是总额。

Growth \ years held涨幅 \ 持有年限	5	7	10

Versus not buying at all与干脆不买相比

The same money rented instead, with the down payment and every monthly difference invested at the alternative return. Positive means buying came out ahead. 同一笔钱改成租房，首付与每月差额都按替代收益率投资。正数表示买房赢了这么多。

Growth \ years held涨幅 \ 持有年限	5	7	10

ahead领先 behind落后 never happened here at this pace这个速度在这里从没发生过

How to read this.怎么读这两张表。 Figures are before tax — no depreciation, capital gains, or interest deduction. Dollars are nominal at the end of the holding period: not discounted, not inflation-adjusted. The growth rates come from the median price per square foot for the whole city, so they carry no allowance for how one particular house differs. Moving costs and renovation are not included. Where a cell is hatched, no entry quarter in this city's record reached that pace over that holding period; where it is not, the count behind it is a count of overlapping entry quarters, not a probability. Property tax follows California's assessed-value rule: the base is what you paid, rising at most 2% a year. 所有数字为税前 —— 未计折旧、资本利得与利息抵扣。金额是持有期末的名义美元：不折现、不调通胀。涨幅取自整个城市每平尺中位价的变化，因此不含单套房自身差异的余地。搬家与装修未计入。打斜纹的格子表示这个城市的历史里没有任何一个入场季度在该年限内达到过那个速度；没打斜纹的，背后那个次数是互相重叠的入场季度计数，不是概率。房产税按加州计税基数规则：基数是你的买入价，每年最多涨 2%。

Most of what this table swings on is the path, not the house. The same money spread across a dozen units behaves differently — see how multifamily prices and rents have moved. 这张表的结果，大部分取决于走哪条路，而不是哪套房。同一笔钱摊在十几个单元上，分布是另一个样子 —— 看多户的价格与租金怎么走。