Market Insight市场洞察
Single-family, condo and townhome have not moved together. Read them apart and each cycle shows.独栋、公寓、联排的量价轨迹并不相同 —— 分开看,才看得出各自的周期。
Where prices landed tells you little. How they got there tells you what you need. 价格到了哪里说明不了什么,怎么到的才说明问题
Southern California here means Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the four the data covers. Cities need at least 200 sales over the full period to appear. The circle’s colour counts market sales and owner short sales only — a bank reselling a repossessed home prices it as inventory clearance, which is a different thing. Its size counts every sale.本页的「南加州」指 Los Angeles、Orange、Riverside、San Bernardino 四个郡 —— 数据覆盖的就是这四个。城市需全期成交至少 200 笔才会出现。圆的颜色只计正常市场成交与业主违约自售 —— 银行转售法拍房是清库存定价,与普通买卖不是一回事。圆的大小计全部成交。
Darker bands = the middle half of cities (25th–75th percentile) · Lighter bands = the tails either side · Heavy line = median 深色带 = 中间一半的城市(第 25 到第 75 百分位)· 浅色带 = 两端的尾部 · 粗线 = 中位
The bands cover the middle 90% of cities each quarter — the most extreme 5% at each end are left out, so one outlier can’t blow out the reading. A gap in a line means too few sales that quarter to compute a value.带子只覆盖每一季中间 90% 的城市 —— 两端最极端的各 5% 没有画进去,这样一个离群市场不会把其余城市的可读性拖垮。线断开代表这一季成交不足以计算。
This line reads the same measure as the map’s circles — change vs that city’s pre-crash peak, over the last four quarters — but traces it across every quarter instead of just this one. 0% is where a market sits exactly at its pre-crash peak, not a ceiling: many markets are well above it, and below 0% simply means it has not fully recovered. The bars count every sale, bank resales included.这条线读的是与地图上那些圆完全相同的指标 —— 较该城崩盘前高点的涨跌幅,近四季滚动 —— 只是它画的是每一季的轨迹,不只是当前这一季。0% 代表市场正好回到崩盘前高点,不是天花板:很多市场早已远超这个点,低于 0% 只是还没完全收复。柱子计全部成交,含银行转售。
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Background reading: America's 4-million-home deficit, on the supply gap behind these price paths — California accounts for about three million of it. 延伸阅读:美国 400 万套住房缺口,讲的是这些价格轨迹背后的供给缺口 —— 其中约三百万套在加州。