Market市场

Southern California by city. Prices, sales volume and where buyers came from, from public county records — single-family, condo and townhome each on its own path.南加州,按城市。价格、成交量与买家来源,全部取自公开的郡记录 —— 独栋、公寓、联排各走各的路。

Read a housing market by the whole path it has travelled. 看住宅市场,要看它走过的整条路

Permalink to this view本视图永久链接
Price change by city 南加州各城价格涨跌幅
Circle colour圆的颜色
-80%0%+100%
Solid = has a value: % change vs its pre-crash peak 实心 = 有数值:较崩盘前高点的涨跌幅 Hollow grey = unmeasurable, not evidence the market hasn't recovered — either no pre-crash peak on record (crisis-window sales too thin), or not enough sales this quarter to plot a value 空心灰圈 = 是测不了,不是没有回来 —— 要么这个城市从来没有崩盘前高点可比(危机窗口成交太少),要么这一季成交不足画不出数值
Circle size = sales in the last four quarters — has a floor and a ceiling圆的大小 = 近四季成交量 —— 有下限也有上限
Timeline bars时间轴柱子
Market sale 正常市场成交 Owner short sale (pre-foreclosure) 业主违约自售 Bank resale (post-foreclosure) 银行转售(法拍后银行卖出)
▲ / ▼ on a selected city's line选中城市贴线标签上的 ▲ / ▼
The line itself is drawn clipped to the chart's range. When a selected city's true change goes beyond what the chart can show, its moving label carries an arrow and the real, uncapped number instead of the clipped one — ▲ means the true value is above the top of the chart, ▼ means it's below the bottom. 线本身被画在了图能显示的量程以内。当选中城市的真实涨跌幅超出这张图能画的范围时,贴着线走的数值标签会带上箭头,显示未截断的真实数字,而不是被截断的那个 —— ▲ 代表真实值高于图顶,▼ 代表真实值低于图底。
Spread of price paths 南加州价格走势分布
The four bands are each quarter's price-change percentiles across all cities in view: the two darker bands are the middle half of cities (25th–75th percentile), the two lighter ones the tails on either side. The shading spans the 5th to the 95th percentile — the most extreme 5% at each end is left out. The heavy line is the median. 四层带是每一季全部在看城市的涨跌幅分位数:两层深色是中间一半的城市(第 25 到第 75 百分位),两层浅色是两端的尾部。阴影只覆盖第 5 到第 95 百分位——两端最极端的各 5% 没有画进去。粗线是中位。
Where buyers came from 买家从哪来
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 buyers 买家
Quarterly buyer volume季度买家量

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Background reading: America's 4-million-home deficit, on the supply gap behind these price paths — California accounts for about three million of it. 延伸阅读:美国 400 万套住房缺口,讲的是这些价格轨迹背后的供给缺口 —— 其中约三百万套在加州。

The section above is the city's own record. The next step, valuation, starts from one address and the recent sales around it. 上面这一段讲的是整个城市的记录。下一站「估值」从一个具体地址、以及它周围的近期成交开始。