Market Insight市场洞察

Single-family, condo and townhome have not moved together. Read them apart and each cycle shows.独栋、公寓、联排的量价轨迹并不相同 —— 分开看,才看得出各自的周期。

Where prices landed tells you little. How they got there tells you what you need. 价格到了哪里说明不了什么,怎么到的才说明问题

Price Change by City 南加州各城价格涨跌幅
Circle colour圆的颜色
-80%0%+100%
Solid = has a value: % change vs its pre-crash peak 实心 = 有数值:较崩盘前高点的涨跌幅 Hollow grey = unmeasurable, not evidence the market hasn't recovered — either no pre-crash peak on record (crisis-window sales too thin), or not enough sales this quarter to plot a value 空心灰圈 = 是测不了,不是没有回来 —— 要么这个城市从来没有崩盘前高点可比(危机窗口成交太少),要么这一季成交不足画不出数值
Circle size = sales in the last four quarters — floored and capped, so the smallest and largest markets (about 1–12% at each end) are drawn at the same size圆的大小 = 近四季成交量 —— 有下限也有上限,最小与最大的那些城市(两端各约占 1%–12%)会被画成同一个尺寸

Southern California here means Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the four the data covers. Cities need at least 200 sales over the full period to appear. The circle’s colour counts market sales and owner short sales only — a bank reselling a repossessed home prices it as inventory clearance, which is a different thing. Its size counts every sale.本页的「南加州」指 Los Angeles、Orange、Riverside、San Bernardino 四个郡 —— 数据覆盖的就是这四个。城市需全期成交至少 200 笔才会出现。圆的颜色只计正常市场成交与业主违约自售 —— 银行转售法拍房是清库存定价,与普通买卖不是一回事。圆的大小计全部成交。

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Spread of Price Paths 南加州价格走势分布
How widely cities in view moved apart, quarter by quarter. 在看的这些城市,每一季拉开了多大的差距。

Darker bands = the middle half of cities (25th–75th percentile) · Lighter bands = the tails either side · Heavy line = median 深色带 = 中间一半的城市(第 25 到第 75 百分位)· 浅色带 = 两端的尾部 · 粗线 = 中位

The bands cover the middle 90% of cities each quarter — the most extreme 5% at each end are left out, so one outlier can’t blow out the reading. A gap in a line means too few sales that quarter to compute a value.带子只覆盖每一季中间 90% 的城市 —— 两端最极端的各 5% 没有画进去,这样一个离群市场不会把其余城市的可读性拖垮。线断开代表这一季成交不足以计算。

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Price and Sales Volume 价格与成交量
The median price path, with each quarter’s sales underneath. 价格中位走势,下面是每一季的成交量。
Market sale 正常市场成交 Owner short sale (pre-foreclosure) 业主违约自售 Bank resale (post-foreclosure) 银行转售(法拍后银行卖出)
▲ / ▼ on a selected city’s line选中城市贴线标签上的 ▲ / ▼
The line itself is drawn clipped to the chart's range. When a selected city's true change goes beyond what the chart can show, its moving label carries an arrow and the real, uncapped number instead of the clipped one — ▲ means the true value is above the top of the chart, ▼ means it's below the bottom. 线本身被画在了图能显示的量程以内。当选中城市的真实涨跌幅超出这张图能画的范围时,贴着线走的数值标签会带上箭头,显示未截断的真实数字,而不是被截断的那个 —— ▲ 代表真实值高于图顶,▼ 代表真实值低于图底。

This line reads the same measure as the map’s circles — change vs that city’s pre-crash peak, over the last four quarters — but traces it across every quarter instead of just this one. 0% is where a market sits exactly at its pre-crash peak, not a ceiling: many markets are well above it, and below 0% simply means it has not fully recovered. The bars count every sale, bank resales included.这条线读的是与地图上那些圆完全相同的指标 —— 较该城崩盘前高点的涨跌幅,近四季滚动 —— 只是它画的是每一季的轨迹,不只是当前这一季。0% 代表市场正好回到崩盘前高点,不是天花板:很多市场早已远超这个点,低于 0% 只是还没完全收复。柱子计全部成交,含银行转售。

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Buyer Origin by City 跨城买家来源
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 buyers 买家
Quarterly buyer volume季度买家量

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Background reading: America's 4-million-home deficit, on the supply gap behind these price paths — California accounts for about three million of it. 延伸阅读:美国 400 万套住房缺口,讲的是这些价格轨迹背后的供给缺口 —— 其中约三百万套在加州。

Disclosures.免责声明。 Figures on this page are statistical summaries of public county sale records — not an appraisal, a broker price opinion, or investment advice. Coverage and timing vary by city. 本页数字为公开郡成交记录的统计汇总 —— 不构成估价、经纪人价格意见或投资建议。各城市的覆盖与时点并不一致。

The section above is the city's own record. The next step, valuation, starts from one address and the recent sales around it. 上面这一段讲的是整个城市的记录。下一站「估值」从一个具体地址、以及它周围的近期成交开始。