Market市场
Southern California by city. Prices, sales volume and where buyers came from, from public county records — single-family, condo and townhome each on its own path.南加州,按城市。价格、成交量与买家来源,全部取自公开的郡记录 —— 独栋、公寓、联排各走各的路。
Read a housing market by the whole path it has travelled. 看住宅市场,要看它走过的整条路
Permalink to this view本视图永久链接“Southern California” here means Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the four the data covers. San Diego, Ventura and Santa Barbara are not included.本页的“南加州”指 Los Angeles、Orange、Riverside、San Bernardino 四个县 —— 数据覆盖的就是这四个。不含 San Diego、Ventura、Santa Barbara。
How to read the 0% line in the chart below: 0% is where a market sits exactly at its pre-crash peak — not a ceiling. Many markets have already grown well past it (drawn above the 0% line); a market below 0% simply hasn’t fully recovered yet. 怎么读下面这张图的 0% 线:0% 代表市场此刻正好回到崩盘前的高点——不是天花板。很多市场早已远远超过这个点(画在 0% 线上方);低于 0% 只是说明这个市场还没完全收复失地。
The map circle and the line in the chart below now read the exact same measure — change vs its pre-crash peak, last four quarters. The circle is a snapshot of this one quarter; the line traces that same number across every quarter, with the current quarter marked (the label follows the line as you play). They can’t point in different directions anymore: same field, same basis, just two different views of it. 地图圆和下面这条线,现在读的是完全同一个指标——较崩盘前高点涨跌多少,同一个近四季滚动窗口。圆是这一季的快照;线把同一个数字画成每一季的完整轨迹,当前这一季会被标出(播放时标签跟着线走)。两者不会再指向不同方向:同一个字段、同一个基准,只是两种不同的看法。
Size has a floor and a ceiling: markets are drawn at the same minimum or maximum size once their actual volume is far enough below the floor or above the ceiling (about 1–12% of markets on either end, depending on property type). 大小有下限也有上限:当成交量低到地板以下或高到天花板以上时,城市会被画成同一个最小或最大尺寸(视房型与哪一端而定,两端各约占 1%–12%)。
Covers cities that passed the display threshold (at least 200 total sales over the full period). Bank repossessions are excluded from every count in this section — a lender taking a house back on foreclosure is a title transfer, not a sale. The price quantile bands in the chart below, and the map circles' colour, all use only market sales and owner short sales (pre-foreclosure). Bank resales are real sales, but they're priced as inventory clearance by the lender — a different price-formation process than an ordinary sale — so mixing them in would let those series move with the sales mix instead of the market itself; bank resales are still included in the map circles' size, the sales-volume bars, and the distressed-share percentage, just not in the price bands or the circles' colour. 统计范围为过了展示门槛(全期成交至少 200 笔)的城市。本节所有数字均已排除银行收房登记 —— 法拍后贷款人把房子收回是产权转移登记,不是买卖。下面这张价格分位数带图,以及地图圆的颜色,都只统计正常市场成交与业主违约自售。银行转售是真实买卖,但它的定价是银行清库存,与普通买卖的定价过程不是一回事 —— 混进这些序列会让它们随成交结构变化,而不是随市场本身变化;银行转售仍计入地图圆的大小、成交量柱状图与困境成交占比,只是不计入价格带或圆的颜色。
Gaps in the lines mean too few sales that quarter to compute a value — not missing or broken data. The bands themselves only cover the middle 90% of cities each quarter — the most extreme 5% on either end are left out, so one outlier market can't blow out the reading for everyone else. 线断开代表这一季成交不足以计算,不是数据缺失或加载失败。带子本身只覆盖每一季中间 90% 的城市——两端最极端的各 5% 没有画进去,这样一个离群的市场不会把其他所有城市的可读性都拖垮。
Loading coverage… 正在加载覆盖率…
Background reading: America's 4-million-home deficit, on the supply gap behind these price paths — California accounts for about three million of it. 延伸阅读:美国 400 万套住房缺口,讲的是这些价格轨迹背后的供给缺口 —— 其中约三百万套在加州。
The section above is the city's own record. The next step, valuation, starts from one address and the recent sales around it. 上面这一段讲的是整个城市的记录。下一站「估值」从一个具体地址、以及它周围的近期成交开始。