LA Multifamily: Navigating a Supply-Demand Imbalance洛杉矶多户住宅：在供需失衡中寻找方向

The Los Angeles multifamily sector is experiencing its most challenging period in years. Weakened renter demand, coupled with a sustained construction pipeline, has driven vacancy to 5.7% — the highest level this decade outside of the pandemic year. Yet in relative terms, LA still outperforms much of the nation, where average vacancy sits at 8.6%. The question for investors is whether LA's structural undersupply advantage can reassert itself as new deliveries begin to taper.洛杉矶多户住宅板块正经历多年来最具挑战性的时期。租赁需求疲软叠加持续的建设供给，推动空置率升至5.7%——除疫情年份外的十年新高。但相对而言，洛杉矶仍优于全国大部分地区（全国平均空置率8.6%）。投资者需要关注的问题是：随着新交付量开始收窄，洛杉矶的结构性供给不足优势能否重新显现。

Demand Is Weakening — But Unevenly需求走弱——但分化明显

Net absorption over the past twelve months totalled just 2,800 units — a sharp decline compared to prior years. Slower job growth, elevated unemployment, and ongoing outmigration from the metro have all eroded the renter pool. However, the pain is not evenly distributed. Newer, high-end properties continue to absorb roughly 6,000 units annually, while older, lower-quality stock has posted net negative absorption, losing approximately 3,300 units in the latest period. This bifurcation reflects a broader trend: renters who can afford to upgrade are doing so, while the lower end of the market faces structural demand erosion.过去12个月净吸纳仅约2,800套——与往年相比大幅下降。就业增长放缓、失业率居高不下以及持续的人口外迁共同侵蚀了租客池。然而，冲击并非均匀分布。较新的高端物业每年仍能吸纳约6,000套，而老旧低端存量则出现净负吸纳，最近一期净流失约3,300套。这种分化反映了一个更广泛的趋势：有能力升级的租客正在这样做，而市场低端面临结构性需求侵蚀。

Rent Growth Has Stalled租金增长停滞

Asking rents have been effectively flat, with annual growth at -0.1%. This follows a sustained period of deceleration since the post-pandemic spike in 2021. LA currently averages $2,340/month — approximately 30% above the national figure — which continues to put pressure on affordability and contributes to outmigration. There is a notable quality split here as well: high-end rents are declining at -1.0% annually, while mid-tier and older properties are still managing modest positive growth near 1%. Submarkets with below-average rents and limited new supply — such as South LA and North Hills — are outperforming with rent growth of 1.3-1.6%.租金要价基本持平，年增长率为-0.1%。这延续了2021年疫后反弹以来持续减速的趋势。洛杉矶目前平均月租金约2,340美元——比全国水平高约30%——这持续加压可负担性并助推人口外迁。品质分化同样明显：高端物业租金年降1.0%，而中低端物业仍维持约1%的温和正增长。租金低于平均水平且新供给有限的子市场——如南洛杉矶和North Hills——表现优异，租金增长达1.3-1.6%。

Supply Pipeline Is Peaking供给管线正在见顶

Over 10,000 units were delivered in the past twelve months, slightly above the decade average. However, there are early signs that the pipeline is peaking: construction starts and units under construction have both declined as higher interest rates make project financing more challenging. Roughly 18,000 units remain under construction, with over 75% being high-end product. Koreatown, Downtown LA, and Greater Inglewood account for approximately 30% of the active pipeline.过去12个月交付超过10,000套，略高于十年平均水平。但有早期迹象表明供给管线正在见顶：随着高利率使项目融资更加困难，开工量和在建量均已下降。目前约18,000套在建，其中超过75%为高端产品。Koreatown、洛杉矶市中心和大英格尔伍德占活跃管线的约30%。

Compared to the national picture, LA's development has been relatively restrained. The metro's total inventory grew just 10.3% over the past decade, versus 28.3% nationally — a function of high construction costs, lengthy permitting timelines, and anti-density politics. Recent CEQA reform at the state level may ease some of these constraints, but meaningful impact will take time to materialise.与全国相比，洛杉矶的开发相对克制。过去十年该都市区总库存仅增长10.3%，而全国为28.3%——这源于高建设成本、漫长的审批周期和反密度政治。加州层面最近的CEQA改革可能缓解部分制约，但实质性影响需要时间显现。

Transaction Market: Volume Holds, Pricing Slides交易市场：成交量持稳，价格下滑

Sales volume reached $8 billion over the past twelve months, roughly in line with 2024 but still below the ten-year annual average of $9 billion. More notably, average per-unit pricing has continued a four-year decline, falling to approximately $350,000/unit — down over 15% from the 2021 peak of $430,000/unit. The city's Measure ULA transfer tax, which imposes a 4-5.5% levy on transactions above $5.3 million within LA city limits, remains a significant friction point for institutional sellers.过去12个月交易额达80亿美元，与2024年基本持平，但仍低于90亿美元的十年年均水平。更值得注意的是，平均单价延续了四年的下滑趋势，降至约35万美元/套——较2021年峰值43万美元/套下降超过15%。洛杉矶市的Measure ULA转让税——对超过530万美元的交易征收4-5.5%的税费——仍是机构卖方面临的重要摩擦成本。

SGS ViewSGS 观点

LA's multifamily market is in a transitional phase. The near-term picture is challenging: rising vacancy, flat rents, and pricing pressure from the Measure ULA regime. But the medium-term setup is more constructive. Development constraints — both regulatory and financial — are throttling future supply, while the metro's chronic housing shortage remains unresolved. For investors with a longer horizon, the current dislocation in pricing may present opportunities, particularly in mid-tier assets in suburban submarkets where vacancy is low, rent growth is positive, and new supply is limited. Timing the entry will matter — but the structural case for LA multifamily remains intact.洛杉矶多户住宅市场正处于过渡阶段。短期前景具有挑战：空置率上升、租金持平、以及Measure ULA制度带来的定价压力。但中期格局更为积极。开发制约——包括监管和融资层面——正在限制未来供给，而该都市区长期性的住房短缺仍未解决。对于投资期限较长的投资者而言，当前的定价错位可能带来机会，尤其是郊区子市场中空置率低、租金正增长、新供给有限的中端资产。入场时机将至关重要——但洛杉矶多户住宅的结构性投资逻辑依然成立。