America's 4-Million-Home Deficit: What It Means for Residential Investors美国400万套住房缺口：对住宅投资者意味着什么

The United States ended 2025 with a cumulative housing deficit exceeding four million homes — up from an estimated 3.8 million the prior year. Household formation continues to outpace construction, with roughly 1.4 million new households formed annually against approximately 1.36 million housing starts. The shortfall is not new, but it is accelerating, and its implications for both single-family and multifamily investors are becoming harder to ignore.美国在2025年底的累计住房缺口超过400万套——高于前一年估计的380万套。家庭组建速度持续超过建设速度，每年约140万个新家庭形成，而住房开工量仅约136万套。这一短缺并非新现象，但正在加速，其对独立屋和多户住宅投资者的影响已愈发难以忽视。

The Math Doesn't Work算不过来的账

In 2025, single-family starts fell to roughly 940,000 — the lowest since 2019. Multifamily starts held at approximately 415,000 but completions declined as the wave of pandemic-era projects wound down. Even under the most optimistic scenario — a 50% increase in construction output sustained over time — analysts estimate it would take at least seven years to close the current gap. That scenario assumes no further demand growth, which is unrealistic given that an estimated 1.8 million potential households among 18-to-44-year-olds remain unformed, the largest backlog in four years.2025年，独立屋开工量降至约94万套——2019年以来最低。多户住宅开工量维持在约41.5万套，但竣工量有所下降，因为疫情时期启动的项目逐渐完工。即使在最乐观的情境下——建设产出持续增加50%——分析师估计至少需要七年才能弥合当前缺口。这一情境假设没有进一步的需求增长，而这并不现实，因为估计有180万个18至44岁的潜在家庭尚未组建，为四年来最大积压。

California: Where the Crisis Is Most Acute加州：危机最为严峻的地方

California accounts for roughly three million of the national deficit — nearly three-quarters of the total gap concentrated in a single state. The structural reasons are well-documented: building in California costs an estimated 250% more than in states like Texas, driven by regulatory complexity, prolonged permitting timelines, and elevated labor and materials costs. The average housing unit in Los Angeles takes nearly five years from permit to completion.加州占全美缺口的约300万套——接近四分之三的总缺口集中在一个州。结构性原因已被充分记录：在加州建房成本估计比德州等州高出250%，原因包括监管复杂性、审批周期冗长以及人工和材料成本高企。洛杉矶一套住房从获批到竣工平均需要近五年。

Los Angeles exemplifies the paradox. The county has lost over 500,000 residents in the past decade, yet the number of households has actually increased — driven by shrinking household sizes and more single-person residences. Housing production, meanwhile, has collapsed from over 70,000 units per year in the 1950s to fewer than 15,000 annually in the 2010s. Roughly 72% of the city's land remains zoned exclusively for single-family use, severely limiting density.洛杉矶是这一悖论的典型代表。过去十年该县流失了超过50万居民，但家庭数量实际上有所增加——原因是家庭规模缩小和单人住户增多。与此同时，住房建设量已从1950年代的每年超过7万套骤降至2010年代的不足1.5万套。全市约72%的土地仍仅被规划为独立屋用途，严重限制了密度提升。

What This Means for Single-Family对独立屋市场的启示

The national single-family market is caught between persistent demand and constrained supply. California's median home price is forecast to reach $905,000 in 2026 — yet only 18% of households can afford a median-priced home. This affordability wall doesn't eliminate demand; it redirects it. Entry-level and workforce-priced new construction in submarkets outside of core urban areas — where land costs are lower and regulatory barriers are less severe — stands to capture a deep pool of underserved buyers. Builders who can deliver product at price points 20-40% below metro averages occupy a structurally advantaged position.全美独立屋市场正处于持续需求与受限供给之间。加州2026年房价中位数预计将达到90.5万美元——但仅有18%的家庭能够负担得起中位价格的住房。这道可负担性壁垒并不会消除需求，而是重新定向需求。在核心城区以外的子市场，土地成本较低、监管壁垒相对宽松的区域，入门级和刚需定价的新建住宅有望捕获大量未被满足的买家需求。能够以低于都市区平均价格20-40%的价位交付产品的开发商，占据着结构性优势地位。

What This Means for Multifamily对多户住宅市场的启示

When homeownership becomes unattainable for the majority, renting becomes the default — and demand for well-located, well-managed rental housing deepens. In Los Angeles, over 90% of renter households earning under $50,000 already spend more than 30% of their income on housing. This rent burden is severe, but it also underscores just how inelastic demand is: people need a place to live, regardless of cost pressures. The chronic undersupply of housing across all types acts as a floor under occupancy rates and, over time, rents.当大多数人无法实现购房时，租房成为默认选择——对地段好、管理优的租赁住房的需求随之加深。在洛杉矶，超过90%年收入低于5万美元的租户家庭已将收入的30%以上用于住房支出。这一租金负担十分严峻，但也恰恰说明需求的刚性有多强：无论成本压力如何，人们都需要住处。各类住房的长期供给不足为入住率——以及长期租金——提供了底部支撑。

The near-term supply pipeline will add pressure in certain submarkets, particularly where new high-end product is concentrated. But the development constraints that define California — cost, regulation, and time — ensure that the pipeline will taper. For patient capital, the current period of elevated vacancy and flat rents may represent a window to acquire assets below replacement cost.近期的供给管线将在某些子市场——特别是新建高端产品集中的区域——构成压力。但定义加州市场的开发制约因素——成本、监管和时间——确保供给管线将逐步收窄。对于耐心资本而言，当前空置率偏高、租金持平的时期，可能是以低于重置成本收购资产的窗口。

SGS ViewSGS 观点

The housing deficit is not a cyclical problem — it is a generational one. Four million missing homes cannot be built in a single cycle, and the regulatory and cost environment ensures that construction will continue to lag demand for years to come. For residential investors, this structural imbalance creates two distinct but related opportunities: developing attainably priced single-family homes in supply-constrained submarkets, and acquiring or developing multifamily assets in markets where the inability to buy forces sustained rental demand. The thesis is simple — when the country needs millions more homes than it is building, capital deployed into housing production and ownership occupies a fundamentally strong position.住房缺口不是周期性问题——而是代际性问题。400万套缺失的住房无法在一个周期内建成，而监管和成本环境确保了建设将在未来数年持续落后于需求。对于住宅投资者而言，这种结构性失衡创造了两个不同但相关的机会：在供给受限的子市场开发可负担定价的独立屋，以及在购房无力迫使持续租赁需求的市场收购或开发多户住宅资产。投资逻辑很简单——当一个国家需要的住房比其建设的多出数百万套时，投入住房建设和持有的资本就处于根本性的强势地位。